The UFC returns to the Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada this week for a twelve-bout fight night card.

In the main event, veteran gamer Rafael Dos Anjos squares off with Vicente Luque in a Welterweight clash, while Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu face off in the Featherweight co-main.

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Main Card

Vicente Luque (21-9-1) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (32-14) (WW)

Luque is returning for the first time in a year since suffering a brain hemorrhage in his knockout loss to Geoff Neal. RDA impressed with a submission win over Bryan Barbarena in his return to Welterweight in December. This fight comes down to what version of both fighters we see in the cage Saturday night, as Luque is returning from a tremendous injury and RDA is getting up there at 38 years old. I see Luque controlling the striking exchanges with his range advantage and higher volume, though RDA is incredibly tough to put away. I see the veteran being able to drag Luque to the ground, but not being able to rack up long stints of control, as he has struggled with the size of Welterweights previously in his career. I see Luque defending the grappling attack and racking up volume for a late stoppage.

My Pick: Vicente Luque via Knockout

Cub Swanson (28-13) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (13-3-1) (FTW)

Cub Swanson has traded wins and losses in his last six bouts, still displaying powerful and versatile striking but also showing concerns with his takedown defense and durability at 39 years old. Dawodu brings high-level Muay Thai with an excellent strike differential and striking combinations but has similar issues with being controlled on the mat. Dawodu has a clear edge in volume and technique and I see him controlling range excellently to pick apart Swanson and exploit his weakness to the body, but Swanson may keep this live by mixing in takedowns. However, even if taken down, I see Dawodu quickly getting back to his feet and racking up significant strikes for a late TKO or dominant decision.

My Pick: Hakeem Dawodu via Decision

Khalil Rountree (11-5) vs. Chris Daukaus (12-6) (LHW)

Khalil Rountree has always struggled with consistency but has now put together a three-fight win streak after considering retirement. He is a punishing Muay Thai striker who has worked on ironing out his whole game, though his takedown defense still presents many holes to be exploited. Daukaus is stepping down from Heavyweight after three straight knockout losses and while his frame is better suited to 205, his trademark speed will have less success, along with worsening concerns about his chin. I see Rountree finding a knockout, though his inconsistency is always cause for a little concern at a line like this.

My Pick: Khalil Rountree via Knockout

Polyana Viana (13-5) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (14-5) (SW)

We have a fun clash here and I’m excited to see how it shakes out. Viana has long been an all action member of the Strawweight roster but impressed with a KO in her last outing, while Lucindo picked up a decision win in her last performance. I think Lucindo’s technique and superior defense will take the reins on the feet and I also don’t see her having issue getting this to the ground, as Viana doesn’t mind playing off her back. In fact, I see Viana taking advantage of Lucindo’s submission defense for another finish, though I do believe this is one of the closest bouts on the card.

My Pick: Polyana Viana via Submission

Tafon Nchukwi (6-3) vs. AJ Dobson (6-2) (MW)

Nchukwi is dropping back down to Middleweight after two straight knockout losses at 205, though he has bounced between weight classes before. He comes from a kickboxing background and has a consistent and versatile attacks, mixing in heavy kicks well for someone his size and has demonstrated improving wrestling, though he has been tested little off his back and has shown poor TDD. Dobson is still looking for his first UFC win after a close decision loss to Petrosyan last time out where he failed to pull the trigger in key moments. I think Dobson’s wrestling will be the differentiator here, along with the finishing power on the feet to exploit Nchukwi’s defense. If he fails to pull the trigger on the feet like his last time out, Nchukwi could cruise to a decision, but I think Dobson gets this to the mat and finds a finish.

My Pick: AJ Dobson via Submission

Josh Fremd (10-4) vs. Jamie Pickett (13-9) (MW)

After a rough start to his UFC tenure, Josh Fremd secured a finish over Sedriques Dumas in his last outing. He is a long striker with heavy hands who is tough as nails with a variety of submissions to work off as well. Pickett is likely looking at his walking papers with another loss here, suffering three straight finishes. I think Fremd’s pace and similar size will cause problems for Pickett, who I see getting his last UFC loss.

My Pick: Josh Fremd via Knockout

Prelims

Marcus McGhee (7-1) vs. JP Buys (9-5) (BW)

We have a fun stylistic clash in the prelims headliner. McGhee is a powerful and explosive striker who impressed in his debut, submitting Journey Newson. Buys is stepping up from Flyweight after three straight losses and is a dangerous man on the mat, though his striking defense is porous. While Buys could have success if he can get to top position early and often, he’s in for a rough ride on the feet, as McGhee’s combinations and power will make short work of him at the higher weight class.

My Pick: Marcus McGhee via Knockout

Terrance McKinney (13-6) vs. Mike Breeden (10-5) (LW)

Terrance McKinney is making a return just three weeks after suffering a submission loss to Nazim Sadykhov. McKinney lives and dies by the sword, bringing a ferocious pace with finishing options on the feet or the mat, though his offense and defense dramatically fade in the second round. Mike Breeden is 0-2 in the UFC after taking a short notice call, dropping a decision to Natan Levy in his sophomore outing. While Breeden’s volume will make it interesting if this fight goes longer, the nine takedowns he let up to Natan Levy give me concern, as McKinney will quickly get this to the mat and push for a quick finish. I think he finds an early submission, though the quick turnaround makes it hard to eat the inflated odds.

My Pick: Terrance McKinney via Submission

Francis Marshall (7-1) vs. Isaac Dulgarian (5-0) (FTW)

After earning a contract on the Contender Series, Marshall finished Marcelo Rojo before suffering a narrow split decision loss to William Gomis. He is incredibly technical with excellent fight IQ and the wrestling to quickly change how a fight is going. Dulgarian is making his debut here after earning a contract on Looking for a Fight, securing a quick knockout on the regional circuit. With five first-round finishes, Dulgarian is a quick starter who mixes his attack up well but built his resume off poor opposition. The technical edge and wrestling Marshall will win him a decision after making it through a strong Dulgarian start.

My Pick: Francis Marshall via Decision

Josh Parisian (15-6) vs. Martin Buday (12-1) (HW)

I think we’re in for a close striking battle. Parisian has traded wins and losses in inconsistent performances, though his striking defense is a consistent concern. Buday is undefeated in the UFC so far (thanks to some dicey judging) and is yet to impress, typically dominating control time in the clinch and racking up significant strikes at a slow, yet reliable, pace. I think Parisian will give him little resistance in going forward and dominating the fight in close, though I think Parisian’s awkward striking style will keep matters close on the scorecards.

My Pick: Martin Buday via Decision

Montserrat Ruiz (10-2) vs. Jaqueline Amorim (6-1) (SW)

Ruiz is returning after a three-year layoff following a knockout loss to title challenger Amanda Lemos. She constantly looks for her head and arm throw and rushes into the clinch, looking to get to top position. Amorim suffered a loss in her debut after gassing following a dominant first round and if she has even remotely shored up those concerns, this should be a short night at the office for her. Ruiz is fairly one-note and often gives up her back in grappling sequences, where I see Amorim quickly finding a finish.

My Pick: Jaqueline Amorim via Submission

Da’Mon Blackshear (13-5-1) vs. Jose Johnson (15-7) (BW)

Jose Johnson is stepping in here as a late replacement after earning a contract on the Contender Series last year. He is a technical striker with a massive 6’0″ frame for the division, though his takedown defense has proven suspect in multiple appearances on the Contender Series. Blackshear finally secured a UFC victory over Luan Lacerda in June, stopping him with ground and pound in the second round. He is incredibly well-rounded and durable, also boasting a great size for the division. I see the consistent takedowns and combination striking of Blackshear taking home a close decision.

My Pick: Da’Mon Blackshear via Decision

Juliana Miller (3-2) vs. Luana Santos (5-1) (FLW)

After winning TUF Season 30, Miller suffered a dominant decision loss to Veronica Hardy, failing to get her grappling going. She is a BJJ artist who loves a brawl, though her defense and wrestling have not caught up to her offense. Santos is making her debut after a string of impressive performances in the LFA, last submitting the previously undefeated Bartira Rodrigues. If Miller couldn’t get her wrestling going against Hardy, I don’t see it happening against the judoka Santos, who narrowly lost to BJJ world champ Jena Bishop after some low fight-IQ moments. I see Santos controlling the clinch and wrestling exchanges before piecing up Miller at range for a decision.

My Pick: Luana Santos via Decision

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