We have a two-PPV month this July from Edmonton in Canada! We have a Featherweight title fight and many other fun stuff for the main card, but some killer Fight Pass prelims to get to, topped off with a Flyweight match between Gillian Robertson and Sarah Frota!
Gillian Robertson vs. Sarah Frota (FLW)
Gillian Robertson (6-3, 3-1 UFC) overcame Veronica Macedo at UFC Prague in her most recent match, tapping her opponent with a RNC in the second. Robertson has 5 wins by submission and likes to have her fights there, taking 5 of her wins in submission. She has the wrestling to get it there, but her striking is low-level and she takes a lot more punches than she can dish out, especially when she can’t get her pressure off.
After missing weight in her debut at 115 pounds, Sarah Frota (9-1, 0-1 UFC) will move up to Flyweight. She took home a split decision loss in that match to Livinha Souza, but dealt out serious punishment on the feet and even had some ground advances of her own, all while avoiding the terrifying submission chops of Souza. Frota is actually ranked higher in jiu-jitsu than Robertson, but also has fearsome knockout power, something that will only get better with the higher weight class.
Robertson is great on the ground and has good wrestling to get it there. However, Frota did well against the ground game of Souza and showed she has some offense of her own, as well as getting out of submissions that most fighters would have fell to. On the feet, this is Frota’s fight every step of the way. Her pressure and power will dominate this and as long as she can avoid the submissions of Robertson, this is her fight.
Take the Shot: Sarah Frota via Round 2 Knockout
Kyle Stewart vs. Erik Koch (WW)
The Octagon debut of Kyle Stewart (11-2, 0-1 UFC) went poorly after his wrestling game was flipped on him and he was submitted inside the first by Chance Rencountre. He struggled with Rencountre on the feet and got easily picked apart from the outside. Even his wrestling game, meant to be his highlight, was exploited. Stewart’s striking is okay, but doesn’t present a high power or volume. He needs his wrestling to come in if he wants the win here.
Erik Koch (15-6, 4-5 UFC) will be making his yearly appearance in Canada. I last saw Koch in person at UFC Charlotte last January and even snagged a pic with him after the show. That fight was a decision loss to Bobby Green, but a ridiculously entertaining one at that. Koch has been against UFC competition since the days of the WEC and although he’s never gotten a win streak on, he has been up against the best competition, such as Poirier, Lamas and Assuncao. “New Breed” has powerful striking and furious leg kicks, and he utilizes his Southpaw stance better than anyone with his high kicks and counters. The submission game of Koch is also not to be trifled with and he has impressive wrestling and a well-built defensive base.
Erik Koch stepping up a weight class is a problem when you’re looking at an already dangerous striker. Couple that with a powerful submission game and you are in for a rough night. Koch has a similar striking style to Rencountre, except that Koch eats a few more shots. The only way for Stewart to win in my eyes is a wrestling-based decision and the jiu-jitsu of Koch off his back is dangerous, too.
Take the Shot: Erik Koch via Round 2 Knockout
Giacomo Lemos vs. Tanner Boser (HW)
We have a double debut to kick off the card, this time coming at us from the Heavyweight division.
Giacomo Lemos (5-0) is coming in ending all of his fights with finishes but has not gone up against the best talent. When the match is on the fight, Lemos uses a wide variety of kicks, having middling boxing skills and poor defense. On the ground is where Lemos does his best work from the top position, with amazing ground and pound and a nice jiu-jitsu background. His wrestling hasn’t been very successful even against the cans he has gone up against, but the biggest tell is his cardio. Even before the first round is over, Lemos is pretty much done and barely even coherent in the cage.
The Canadian Tanner Boser (16-5) is much more of the striker but doesn’t have the crazy power most UFC Heavyweights do. He usually point-fights his way in, relying on his incredible leg kicks and takedown defense to keep it on the feet. He has been able to be beaten by fighters who shoot at him with explosiveness and negate the leg kicks and volume he throws in.
In the striking department, this is easily Boser’s fight. He has technical boxing and amazing leg kicks, as well as the takedown defense to keep it on the feet against a poor wrestler. The cardio will be the biggest difference here, as Boser can easily go 5, but Lemos can barely take one round. Once Lemos is barely moving and sloppy, pure volume will give Boser a finish.
Take the Shot: Tanner Boser via Round 3 Knockout
Until next time, Freaks.
Categories: UFC Predictions